Loadshedding on pause, what now for SA’s solar surge?

For more than a decade, solar power in South Africa was not primarily an environmental choice. It was a coping mechanism. Panels went up not because households were particularly committed to decarbonisation, but because the grid had become unreliable to the point of disruption. Solar, paired with batteries, offered something far more immediate than sustainability: continuity.

But the conditions that accelerated that shift have changed. With load shedding largely absent for an extended period, the urgency that once drove solar adoption has softened. The question now is no longer how to survive without the grid, but how to think about energy in a system that appears, at least temporarily, to be stabilising.

This shift matters, because it forces a reconsideration of what solar actually represents in South Africa: not just a technical solution, but a set of economic, infrastructural, and social trade-offs that are only now becoming fully visible.

From emergency response to embedded system

Between roughly 2015 and 2024—with acceleration during the most severe periods of load shedding—South Africa experienced one of the fastest expansions of distributed solar in the developing world. Much of this growth occurred at the household and commercial level, largely outside formal procurement programmes. By some estimates, rooftop solar alone added several gigawatts to the grid over this period, driven primarily by private investment rather than coordinated national planning.

This decentralised expansion fundamentally altered the structure of the energy system. Electricity generation, once dominated by large, centralised coal plants, became more fragmented. Homes, office parks, and shopping centres began producing their own power, reducing demand on the national grid during daylight hours.

This shift has been widely documented by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), whose power system analysis highlights the growing contribution of embedded generation to South Africa’s energy mix (https://www.csir.co.za/analysis-sa-power-system-and-data-insights). Data from Eskom and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy similarly reflect the increasing visibility of decentralised generation within the broader system (https://www.eskom.co.za/dataportal/ and https://www.energy.gov.za/IPP/IPP.html).

In the short term, this helped alleviate pressure on the system. In the longer term, however, it introduced a new set of complexities.

Electricity infrastructure is not only about generation; it is also about distribution, maintenance, and cost recovery. Municipalities in particular rely heavily on electricity sales as a source of revenue. As higher-income households and businesses reduce their reliance on grid electricity, municipal income declines, even as the cost of maintaining infrastructure remains constant or increases.

The result is a subtle but significant shift: solar adoption, while individually rational, begins to reshape the financial viability of the broader energy system.

The inequality embedded in energy transition

Solar power is often framed as a democratising technology. In theory, it allows individuals to generate their own electricity, reducing dependence on centralised systems. In practice, access to solar remains uneven.

The upfront cost of installation—panels, inverters, batteries, and maintenance—places it out of reach for many households. While financing models and leasing options have expanded, adoption is still concentrated among middle- and upper-income groups, as well as commercial users.

This creates a layered energy system. Those who can afford solar reduce their exposure to tariffs and outages, while those who cannot remain fully dependent on the grid. As wealthier users draw less electricity from municipal systems, the fixed costs of maintaining infrastructure are distributed across a smaller base, potentially leading to higher tariffs for those still reliant on it.

This dynamic has been raised in policy discussions by the South African Local Government Association (SALGA), which has warned that declining electricity sales linked to embedded generation could place pressure on municipal revenue models (https://www.salga.org.za/Documents/Knowledge%20Hub/Research%20and%20Projects/Municipal%20Revenue%20and%20Energy%20Transition.pdf).

In this context, solar is not simply a clean energy solution. It is also a force that can deepen existing inequalities if not integrated carefully into the broader system.

The myth of seamless transition

There is a tendency to imagine energy transitions as linear: old systems are replaced by new ones, and the overall system improves. The reality is more fragmented.

South Africa’s energy mix remains heavily dependent on coal, which continues to supply the majority of electricity. Renewable energy, including solar and wind, is growing, but not yet at a scale that fully displaces existing generation. Instead, the system is becoming hybrid—part centralised, part decentralised, part renewable, part fossil-based.